Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 33-J.Poyer. 33-J.Poyer up the middle to CLE 32 for 10 yards (49-D.Sorensen). PENALTY on CLE-33-J.Poyer, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP