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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 10

Cleveland Browns 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(10:12) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel right end ran ob at KC 7 for 3 yards (90-J.Mauga).

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.33 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model