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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to CLE 42, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.65 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP