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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP