4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 32

Cleveland Browns 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short right to 10-D.Jennings to KC 18 for 14 yards (38-R.Parker).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.55 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.50 EP