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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.21 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model