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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-A.Lee punts 39 yards to KC 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-F.Hammond to KC 20 for 8 yards (59-T.Carder).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.59 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP