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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(7:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones pushed ob at ARI 28 for 9 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model