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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 16:25 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

GB
28.3%
ARI
71.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Carson Palmer (ARI): +0.285 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
ARI 28
Projected margin: ARI by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

GB

Jayrone Elliott LB Out Quadricep
Sam Shields CB Doubtful Concussion
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Ankle
Justin Perillo TE Questionable Hamstring
Letroy Guion DT Questionable Foot
Corey Linsley C Probable Ankle
Quinten Rollins CB Probable Groin
Bryan Bulaga T Probable Ankle
Mike Daniels DT Probable Hamstring
Eddie Lacy RB Probable Rib
T.J. Lang G Probable Shoulder
Clay Matthews LB Probable Ankle
Josh Sitton G Probable Back

ARI

Josh Mauro DT Out Calf
Andre Ellington RB Questionable Toe
Rashad Johnson S Questionable Ankle
Cory Redding DT Questionable Ankle
Frostee Rucker DT Questionable Ankle
Jermaine Gresham TE Probable Knee
Patrick Peterson CB Probable Ankle
Jerraud Powers CB Probable Calf
Lyle Sendlein C Probable Knee
Ed Stinson DT Probable Shoulder
Sean Weatherspoon LB Probable Illness
Carson Palmer QB Probable right Finger

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 8
–
ARI 38

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:11 TD ARI (14:11) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 05:51 FG ARI (5:51) 7-C.Catanzaro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. GB 0 – ARI 10
  • Q2 00:11 TD ARI (:11) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 12-Jo.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – ARI 16
  • Q3 14:10 TD ARI (14:10) 31-D.Johnson right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – ARI 23
  • Q3 09:47 TD ARI (9:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 41 for -10 yards (96-K.Martin). FUMBLES (96-K.Martin) [96-K.Martin], RECOVERED by ARI-90-C.Redding at GB 36. 90-C.Redding for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – ARI 30
  • Q3 06:41 TD GB (6:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 27-E.Lacy for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ARI-51-K.Minter, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 6 – ARI 31
  • Q3 03:11 TD ARI (3:11) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 9 for -9 yards (54-D.Freeney). FUMBLES (54-D.Freeney) [54-D.Freeney], RECOVERED by ARI-25-J.Powers at GB 7. 25-J.Powers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 8 – ARI 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:41) 2-D.Butler punts 42 yards to GB 40, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 18 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (10:52) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to ARI 5, Center-59-R.Lovato, downed by GB-39-D.Goodson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 59%

    (6:00) 2-D.Butler punts 34 yards to GB 4, impetus ends at GB 1, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-10-B.Golden.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:48) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to ARI 26, Center-59-R.Lovato. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 35 for 9 yards (32-C.Banjo). PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:57) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to ARI 30, Center-59-R.Lovato. 21-P.Peterson MUFFS catch, recovered by ARI-29-C.Clemons at ARI 27. 29-C.Clemons to ARI 27 for no gain (39-D.Goodson).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.99 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (5:51) 7-C.Catanzaro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:49) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay left end to ARI 48 for 7 yards (96-K.Martin).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 62%

    (7:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones pushed ob at ARI 28 for 9 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 30%

    (4:34) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to GB 11, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams to ARI 2 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:04) 2-D.Butler punts 54 yards to GB 13, Center-82-M.Leach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 13 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:26) 8-T.Masthay punts 39 yards to ARI 15, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-J.Nelson.