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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Green Bay Packers 8

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to GB 11, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.14 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model