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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 8 – Arizona Cardinals 38

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 8-T.Masthay punts 39 yards to ARI 15, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-J.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.92 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model