Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to ARI 26, Center-59-R.Lovato. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 35 for 9 yards (32-C.Banjo). PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model