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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 6 – Indianapolis Colts 15

What Actually Happened

(13:01) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to IND 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-Q.Bray to IND 31 for 19 yards (56-J.Johnson). PENALTY on IND-35-A.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model