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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 13:00 Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

IND
44.2%
MIA
55.8%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.071 vs Matt Hasselbeck (IND) -0.010 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 19
–
MIA 21
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

IND

Winston Guy S Out Hamstring
Andrew Luck QB Out Abdomen
Colt Anderson S Questionable Ankle
Josh McNary LB Questionable Groin
Donte Moncrief WR Questionable Toe
Jerrell Freeman LB Probable Hamstring
Matt Hasselbeck QB Probable Back
D'Qwell Jackson LB Probable Quadricep
Erik Walden LB Probable Foot
Jack Doyle TE Probable Toe

MIA

Earl Mitchell DT Doubtful Calf
Ja'Wuan James T Doubtful Toe
Mike Pouncey C Questionable Foot
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Ankle
Rishard Matthews WR Questionable Ribs
Branden Albert T Probable Knee
Lamar Miller RB Probable Quadricep
Jake Stoneburner TE Probable Foot
Jarvis Landry WR Probable Knee
DeVante Parker WR Probable Ankle
Billy Turner G Probable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 18
–
MIA 12

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:25 SAF IND (9:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (67-T.McGill). IND 2 – MIA 0
  • Q1 06:13 TD IND (6:13) 23-F.Gore left guard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 8 – MIA 0
  • Q2 08:15 TD MIA (8:15) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 8 – MIA 6
  • Q2 04:49 TD IND (4:49) 23-F.Gore left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – MIA 6
  • Q3 03:53 FG MIA (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. IND 15 – MIA 9
  • Q4 08:33 FG IND (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 18 – MIA 9
  • Q4 05:22 FG MIA (5:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. IND 18 – MIA 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%

    (10:49) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 40 yards to MIA 4, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-31-J.Brown.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:07) 1-P.McAfee punts 62 yards to MIA 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-J.Landry to MIA 26 for 15 yards (42-C.Geathers). PENALTY on IND-51-S.Moore, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 26.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:16) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to IND 14, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 14 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:01) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to IND 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-Q.Bray to IND 31 for 19 yards (56-J.Johnson). PENALTY on IND-35-A.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 31.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:31) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to MIA 21, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 92%

    (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:36) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 38 yards to MIA 23, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to IND 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-Q.Bray to IND 41 for 16 yards (31-M.Thomas; 42-S.Paysinger).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (5:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:56) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (:27) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at IND 14 for -9 yards (98-R.Mathis).