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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 15 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(10:31) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to MIA 21, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.12 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model