4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 6 – Indianapolis Colts 15

What Actually Happened

(3:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP