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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 44

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 40 yards to MIA 4, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-31-J.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP