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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 15 – Miami Dolphins 9

What Actually Happened

(8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model