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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 2

Miami Dolphins 9 – Indianapolis Colts 18

What Actually Happened

(5:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 2, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP