Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 18 – Miami Dolphins 12

(2:56) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.80 EP
76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -2.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model