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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 8 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:07) 1-P.McAfee punts 62 yards to MIA 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-J.Landry to MIA 26 for 15 yards (42-C.Geathers). PENALTY on IND-51-S.Moore, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model