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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 38 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 5-K.Forbath 28 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-T.Alualu), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead, ball out of bounds at JAX 12.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.93 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model