4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 16:05 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

JAX
48.0%
NO
52.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: +0.189 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • JAX offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

JAX 23
–
NO 24
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

JAX

Telvin Smith LB Doubtful Shoulder
T.J. Yeldon RB Doubtful Knee
Aaron Colvin CB Probable Illness
A.J. Cann G Probable Wrist
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Ryan Davis DE Probable Knee
Dwayne Gratz CB Probable Hamstring
Allen Hurns WR Probable Thigh
Nic Jacobs TE Probable Hamstring
Paul Posluszny LB Probable Hand
Denard Robinson RB Probable Foot
Dan Skuta LB Probable Hamstring
Bryan Walters WR Probable Back
Sergio Brown S Probable Thumb
Roy Miller DT Probable Knee

NO

Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Hip
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Marques Colston WR Questionable Chest
Zach Strief T Questionable Elbow
Benjamin Watson TE Questionable Knee
Drew Brees QB Questionable Foot
Jairus Byrd S Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 27
–
NO 38

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:39 TD NO (10:39) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 84-M.Hoomanawanui for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-T.Alualu]. JAX-75-J.Odrick was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass 17, YAC 0 JAX 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 00:37 TD NO (:37) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 10-B.Cooks for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 41, YAC 30 JAX 0 – NO 13
  • Q2 10:40 TD NO (10:40) 77-M.McGlynn and 65-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 34-T.Hightower right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – NO 20
  • Q2 04:01 FG NO (4:01) 5-K.Forbath 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. JAX 0 – NO 24
  • Q2 01:26 TD JAX (1:26) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 11-M.Lee for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0 JAX 6 – NO 24
  • Q3 08:54 TD JAX (8:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 88-A.Hurns for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 0 JAX 12 – NO 24
  • Q3 05:38 TD NO (5:38) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 38-T.Cadet for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 23, YAC 21 JAX 13 – NO 30
  • Q3 05:00 TD JAX (5:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 15-A.Robinson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – NO 31
  • Q4 13:04 TD NO (13:04) 34-T.Hightower right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – NO 37
  • Q4 01:19 TD JAX (1:19) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 88-A.Hurns for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 0 JAX 25 – NO 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 46%

    (11:48) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 10-B.Cooks pushed ob at JAX 20 for 23 yards (37-J.Cyprien). Pass 13, YAC 10

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:57) 19-B.Anger punts 53 yards to NO 2, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-35-D.McCray.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:12) 19-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NO 34, Center-46-C.Tinker. 38-T.Cadet to NO 41 for 7 yards (58-J.Tripp). PENALTY on NO-20-B.Dixon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 35.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to JAX 28, Center-47-J.Drescher. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 28. 13-R.Greene pushed ob at JAX 32 for 4 yards (33-J.Sanford).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 91%

    (4:01) 5-K.Forbath 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:55) 19-B.Anger punts 49 yards to NO 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (2:53) 5-K.Forbath 28 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-T.Alualu), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead, ball out of bounds at JAX 12.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 36%

    (:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.