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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 38 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP