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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 37

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White to NYJ 24 for 13 yards (21-M.Gilchrist).

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.50 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model