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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NE
50.4%
NYJ
49.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.183 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.128 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.196 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
NYJ 21
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NE

Jonathan Freeny LB Out Hand
Julian Edelman WR Doubtful Foot
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Scott Chandler TE Questionable Knee
Patrick Chung S Questionable Foot
Nate Ebner S Questionable Ankle
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Josh Kline G Questionable Shoulder
Brandon LaFell WR Questionable Foot
Devin McCourty S Questionable Ankle
Justin Coleman CB Probable Hand
Chandler Jones DE Probable Abdomen

NYJ

Dee Milliner CB Doubtful Hamstring
Quincy Enunwa WR Questionable Neck
Kellen Davis TE Probable Back
Eric Decker WR Probable Knee
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Probable left Thumb
Breno Giacomini T Probable Ankle
Nick Mangold C Probable Hand
Brandon Marshall WR Probable Ankle
Dexter McDougle CB Probable Ankle
Geno Smith QB Probable Illness
David Harris LB Probable Back
Calvin Pace LB Probable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 20
–
NYJ 26

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:22 FG NYJ (3:22) 8-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NE 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 08:50 FG NE (8:50) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD NYJ (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 15-B.Marshall for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NE 3 – NYJ 9
  • Q3 09:19 TD NYJ (9:19) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 15-B.Marshall for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – NYJ 16
  • Q3 04:59 FG NE (4:59) 3-S.Gostkowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 6 – NYJ 17
  • Q3 03:31 TD NE (3:31) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick sacked at NYJ 16 for -9 yards (93-J.Sheard). FUMBLES (93-J.Sheard) [95-C.Jones], RECOVERED by NE-91-J.Collins at NYJ 14. 91-J.Collins for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NE 12 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 13:33 FG NYJ (13:33) 8-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NE 13 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 02:00 TD NE (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – NYJ 20
  • Q5 12:27 TD NYJ (12:27) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 87-E.Decker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – NYJ 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:16) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to NE 12, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 82-K.Martin.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:26) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (3:22) 8-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:00) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to NYJ 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 41 for 8 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 37%

    (14:51) 4-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to NE 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 82-K.Martin. PENALTY on NYJ-54-J.Lattimore, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NE 9.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 54%

    (10:50) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White to NYJ 24 for 13 yards (21-M.Gilchrist).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 91%

    (8:50) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 80%

    (4:59) 3-S.Gostkowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 69%

    (13:33) 8-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:02) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:38) 4-R.Quigley punts 48 yards to NE 16, Center-46-T.Purdum. 82-K.Martin pushed ob at NE 31 for 15 yards (58-E.Henderson).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 30%

    (7:42) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NYJ 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:37) 4-R.Quigley punts 57 yards to NE 30, Center-46-T.Purdum. 82-K.Martin to NE 34 for 4 yards (81-Q.Enunwa; 56-D.Davis).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 35%

    (3:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski to NYJ 36 for 8 yards (25-C.Pryor).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 59%

    (2:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to NYJ 9 for 26 yards (25-C.Pryor).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:33) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.