4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 17

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP