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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 58

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to NE 12, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 82-K.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model