4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 31

New York Jets 17 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 8-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.88 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model