Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 82

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 20

(12:02) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model