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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 64

New York Jets 20 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 4-R.Quigley punts 48 yards to NE 16, Center-46-T.Purdum. 82-K.Martin pushed ob at NE 31 for 15 yards (58-E.Henderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 22, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model