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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 46

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NYJ 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model