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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 87

New York Jets 20 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 4-R.Quigley punts 57 yards to NE 30, Center-46-T.Purdum. 82-K.Martin to NE 34 for 4 yards (81-Q.Enunwa; 56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 87, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 45, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model