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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 61

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP