4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 44

New England Patriots 13 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(3:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski to NYJ 36 for 8 yards (25-C.Pryor).

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.58 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model