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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 12

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 8-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.26 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model