Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 74

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 3

(1:00) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to NYJ 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 41 for 8 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.33 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model