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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 43

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 4-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to NE 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 82-K.Martin. PENALTY on NYJ-54-J.Lattimore, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NE 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model