4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 11-S.Janikowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.19 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP