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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Thursday 2015-12-24 · 20:25 O.co Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SD
48.1%
OAK
51.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Wind 25 mph
  • Derek Carr (LV): -0.013 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SD 20
–
OAK 22
Projected margin: OAK by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

SD

King Dunlap T Out Ankle
Kyle Emanuel LB Out Concussion
Sean Lissemore DT Out Shoulder
Ladarius Green TE Questionable Ankle
Steve Johnson WR Questionable Groin
Steve Williams CB Probable Hip
Chris Hairston T Probable Abdomen

OAK

Nate Allen S Out Knee
Mario Edwards DE Out Neck
Neiko Thorpe CB Questionable Neck
Amari Cooper WR Probable Foot
Khalil Mack DE Probable Knee
Seth Roberts WR Probable Abdomen
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 20
–
OAK 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:13 TD LAC (9:13) 34-D.Brown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 6 – OAK 0
  • Q1 03:33 TD LV (3:33) 28-L.Murray right tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 7 – OAK 6
  • Q2 11:08 TD LAC (11:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 15-D.Inman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 13 – OAK 7
  • Q2 06:08 FG LV (6:08) 11-S.Janikowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King. SD 14 – OAK 10
  • Q2 00:36 FG LAC (:36) 2-J.Lambo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 17 – OAK 10
  • Q3 02:16 SAF LV (2:16) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked in End Zone for -6 yards, SAFETY (96-D.Autry). SD 17 – OAK 12
  • Q4 04:47 TD LV (4:47) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 17 – OAK 18
  • Q4 01:00 FG LAC (1:00) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 20 – OAK 20
  • Q5 08:09 FG LV (8:09) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King. SD 20 – OAK 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:18) 5-M.Scifres punts 48 yards to LV 10, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-J.Ross to LV 10 for no gain (25-D.Stuckey).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:58) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to LV 48, Center-47-T.Gafford, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-39-K.McGill, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LV 48.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 61%

    (6:08) 11-S.Janikowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:42) 5-M.Scifres punts 52 yards to LV 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-J.Ross to LV 22 for 9 yards (53-K.Conner).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:12) 7-M.King punts 54 yards to LAC 22, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-54-K.Toomer.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 67%

    (:36) 2-J.Lambo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 16 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:35) 5-M.Scifres punts 43 yards to LV 36, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:22) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to LAC 13, Center-47-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:13) 5-M.Scifres punts 34 yards to LV 46, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 14%

    (7:11) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:53) 5-M.Scifres punts 37 yards to LV 32, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:35) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-22-T.Jones.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:10) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to LAC 14, Center-47-T.Gafford. 29-C.Mager to LAC 16 for 2 yards (54-K.Toomer).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 64%

    (7:27) 2-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (6:32) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Gafford, fair catch by 29-C.Mager.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 72%

    (1:00) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:10) 7-M.King punts 65 yards to LAC 12, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.