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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 5-M.Scifres punts 37 yards to LV 32, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.58 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP