Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(:10) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to LAC 14, Center-47-T.Gafford. 29-C.Mager to LAC 16 for 2 yards (54-K.Toomer).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model