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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 12

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 2-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.39 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model