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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model