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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 5-M.Scifres punts 48 yards to LV 10, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-J.Ross to LV 10 for no gain (25-D.Stuckey).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model