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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 72

Detroit Lions 10 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to SF 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-B.Ellington pushed ob at DET 49 for 31 yards (6-S.Martin). PENALTY on SF-20-K.Acker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.51 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP