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San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
@
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

SF
30.6%
DET
69.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.172 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Blaine Gabbert (SF): -0.102 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 20
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

SF

Alex Boone G Out Knee
Shaun Draughn RB Out Knee
Marcus Martin C Out Concussion
Michael Wilhoite LB Out Ankle
Arik Armstead DT Probable Shoulder
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Shoulder
Tramaine Brock CB Probable Hamstring
Ahmad Brooks LB Probable Shoulder
Quinton Dial DT Probable Shoulder
Eli Harold LB Probable Shoulder
Dontae Johnson CB Probable Ankle
Aaron Lynch LB Probable Concussion
Erik Pears T Probable Knee
Torrey Smith WR Probable Back
Joe Staley T Probable Knee
Jaquiski Tartt S Probable Knee

DET

Dwight Bentley CB Questionable Illness
Josh Bynes LB Questionable Foot
Calvin Johnson WR Questionable Ankle
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Neck
Michael Ola T Questionable Knee
Glover Quin S Questionable Concussion
Caraun Reid DT Questionable Ankle
Larry Warford G Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 17
–
DET 32

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:28 TD SF (9:28) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 89-V.McDonald for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 05:22 FG DET (5:22) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. SF 7 – DET 3
  • Q2 14:21 TD DET (14:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 13-T.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – DET 9
  • Q2 11:30 TD SF (11:30) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 82-T.Smith for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-24-N.Lawson, Defensive Holding, declined. SF 13 – DET 10
  • Q2 08:57 TD DET (8:57) 77-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 35-J.Bell left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – DET 16
  • Q2 00:40 FG SF (:40) 9-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 17 – DET 17
  • Q2 00:02 FG DET (:02) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. SF 17 – DET 20
  • Q3 08:28 FG DET (8:28) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. SF 17 – DET 23
  • Q4 09:07 TD DET (9:07) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 81-C.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – DET 29
  • Q4 03:11 FG DET (3:11) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. SF 17 – DET 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 93%

    (5:22) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to DET 26, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:02) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-I.Abdul-Quddus. 42-I.Abdul-Quddus up the middle to DET 39 for 4 yards (50-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:01) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to SF 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-B.Ellington pushed ob at DET 49 for 31 yards (6-S.Martin). PENALTY on SF-20-K.Acker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (5:42) 9-P.Dawson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%

    (2:48) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to SF 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (:40) 9-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (8:28) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 26%

    (6:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to DET 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 30%

    (4:03) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to SF 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short middle to 38-J.Hayne to SF 40 for 2 yards (59-T.Whitehead).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (3:11) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass incomplete deep right to 89-V.McDonald.