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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 9-P.Dawson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.48 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model