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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 19

Detroit Lions 20 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model