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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Detroit Lions 23

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to DET 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model